What’s Your Prediction?
We’ve spent the last several months discussing what we think SHOULD win Newbery recognition, and why. For this post, let’s shift gears and talk about what we think actually WILL emerge as winners. It’s not as easy as it looks. Though some of my predictions have won Honors over the years, I’m afraid that the last time I picked the winner in advance was eighteen years ago! And it’s not like BUD NOT BUDDY was a big surprise.
So I don’t expect to be accurate, but it’s always fun to speculate. If you want to join in, make your Medal prediction, and Honors too if you want, below. You can also share the reasoning behind your prediction. And you can add one title you don’t think will make it, but really wish it would. I’ll start it off:
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Medal Prediction: THE WAR I FINALLY WON. It checks all the criteria boxes, and it’s hard to find much fault. Could rise to the top as a book that most members could eventually give a first place vote to, even if it’s not their original top pick.
Honor Prediction: VINCENT AND THEO. Strong, innovative nonfiction with distinct style. I’m thinking age level concerns might limit consensus.
Honor Prediction: LONG WAY DOWN. It received less support than I expected on Heavy Medal, but I can see this getting multiple first place votes.
Honor Prediction: HELLO UNIVERSE. Maybe this one gets few first place votes, but could make a lot of top three ballots.
Wishful Thinking: I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING. I know it won our mock poll on Heavy Medal, but I still think it’s a long shot. But a medal for poetry! A medal for humor! This would make me happy.
I always enjoy Betsy Bird’s predictions on Fuse 8, which she updates through the year, and she’s got her final picks up for Newbery and Caldecott. As for my picks , I’m probably way off as usual…what do you think will be announced on February 12th?
Filed under: Field Report, Process
About Steven Engelfried
Steven Engelfried retired from full-time library work a couple years ago and now works as a part-time Youth Librarian at the West Linn Public Library in Oregon. He served on the 2010 Newbery committee, chaired the 2013 Newbery Committee, and also served on the 2002 Caldecott committee. You can reach him at sengelfried@yahoo.com.
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I have horrible track record of predicting as well… but here we go.
Medal: BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA (Never has the #1 on the Goodreads list won the Newbery… I think that changes this year)
Honors: THE WAR I FINALLY WON, WISHTREE, ALL’S FAIRE IN MIDDLE SCHOOL
Wishful Thinking: HELLO UNIVERSE and I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING
I’m not too good at this either but I’ll give it a shot.
Medal: CLAYTON BYRD GOES UNDERGROUND
Honors: THE HATE U GIVE, WISHTREE, REFUGEE, VINCENT & THEO
Wishful Thinking: BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA, PRINCESS CORA AND THE CROCODILE, A DIFFERENT POND
Medal: No idea. I think this year is super hard to predict. I could see BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA getting it for historical fiction.
Honor Book: AMINA”S VOICE
I haven’t had a chance to read it yet, because our copies are continually checked out, but the staff that’s read it here loved it. The patrons loved it well enough to give it a Mock Honor. It might be a long shot but I think that could bode well.
Honor Book: WISHTREE
Applegate is hard to stop. Topical subject matter.
Long Shots: HER RIGHT FOOT (because of all the feels), FIRST RULE OF PUNK (because of the cool format/treatment), ONE LAST WORD (cause you never know)
Often the book I love the most doesn’t win or even get recognized (When the Sea Turned To Silver last year) but I would sure love to see Beyond the Bright Sea be recognized in the medals this year.
My prediction for the medal is: Long Way Down
Honors: War I Finally Won, Beyond the Bright Sea, Her Right Foot and Brave
Outside Chance/Wishful thinking: Crown: An Ode to the Fresh Cut for an honor
I have no idea about the Medal. Almost nothing would surprise me this year.
My thoughts about the honor are PIECING ME TOGETHER (I think this is more likely than THUG or LONG WAY DOWN for the Newbery), HER RIGHT FOOT (aforementioned feelings), and ALL’S FAIRE IN MIDDLE SCHOOL.
My Medal Prediction is CLAYTON BYRD GOES UNDERGROUND because it hits every criteria and I can see consensus building around this title.
Honors for A DIFFERENT POND, and A LONG WAY DOWN. Both that are outside what some “stuffy” committee members might consider the “normal newbery” and therefore harder to get those 8 first place votes. They are however so distinguished that they should rise to the top when it comes to honor voting.
Wishful thinking: ORPHAN ISLAND (as i’ve said before, do believe this one will be more appreciated with multiple rereads, which is exactly what the committee members are doing)
I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see Clayton Byrd winning the Medal. Other titles that I also adored which never seemed to have a chance on the Heavy Medal Mock Newbery Fifteen table are Real Friends and Wish Tree.
However, I don’t think I can predict at all!
I have a feeling REAL FRIENDS and WISHTREE will carry the day when my students vote on Friday. Merits aside, they are required to read a minimum of five eligible titles between, Sept and the announcement. You can see where the length of these two books, might have an advantage with over-scheduled fifth and sixth graders.
Patrons picked either WISHTREE and REAL FRIENDS as the most popular choices at our branches when we did a Mock Newbery last month, with WISHTREE taking the overall System Mock.
I would love to see A DIFFERENT POND on the announcement. It didn’t make it through my student’s first round for Caldecott, up against THIS HOUSE, ONCE.
I think A Different Pond is much more likely for newbery than caldecott (same with HER RIGHT FOOT).
It’s fascinating to me that LONG WAY DOWN is getting so many mentions now when it has hardly been discussed through the season here! I just said this weekend that if an “older” book of this nature is going to win, it should be LONG WAY DOWN instead of THUG (this is my fear prediction), but I didn’t think it had a chance. Hmmmm….
My hopeful predictions follow.
Medal: I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING
(here’s my justification: this is my strong front-runner, but I didn’t think it had a chance at all. Your Newbery 15 process convinced me that it could, so I’m sticking with it! It shouldn’t matter, but I do wonder if the white maleness of the author will end up being a strike against this title this year.)
Honor: CLAYTON BYRD, WISHTREE, TWIFW, REAL FRIENDS
I would definitely have argued for LONG WAY DOWN if I’d read it in time for nominations here.
I’m going to reread LONG WAY DOWN before next Monday, now that I have it in print. I’ve had it argued to me, that is is the perfect book for the ages between twelve and fourteen. I think its impact, the impact it was written to make, would be lost on an upper YA audience. For me THUS is still and upper YA title.
I would have loved to hear some arguments for LONG WAY DOWN. It’s almost like we need Jason Reynolds to publish fewer books each year so each one can get the attention it deserves. 🙂
It’s interesting to see what books did get talked about on HM this year. I wonder how much depends on how we introduce the books. LONG WAY DOWN was part of a three-book post on novels in verse (https://blogs.slj.com/heavymedal/2017/11/03/novels-in-verse-two-out-of-three-isnt-bad/). It did get some discussion, but maybe would have gotten more attention if it was a single post. Also, that post was just a week or so after publication date, so maybe a lot of people hadn’t seen it yet. Next week we’ll have a short online survey for readers, and one thing we hope to learn is how the different ways/times/styles we use in posts might be improved…
I just did my Thoughts on Newbery: Wishes for This Year Post (https://medinger.wordpress.com/2018/02/07/thoughts-on-newbery-my-wishes-for-this-year/) The titles (go to the post to read why for each) are Long Way Down, Hello Universe, I’m Just No Good at Rhyming, Auma’s Long Run, Her Right Foot. Train I Ride, Crown, Clayton Byrd Goes Underground, The War I Finally Won, All’s Faire in Middle School, and Vincent and Theo.
Predictions? Clueless. Wouldn’t be surprised if something came totally out of left field. That would be very cool, if so.
Personally, I found there to be less distinction between the titles I read this year than past years. I too, would not be surprised AT ALL to see something many of us have overlooked come away with the Medal!
Left that off my comment, but I’m also rooting for Real Friends (thanks to those who set me straight on how the writing of a graphic novel works:).
I feel that this is a year without many “typical” choices. I’m with Monica, I have not idea. The book I most want to win is the most “typical” of the lot in many ways, but I also, along with Steven, find THE WAR I FINALLY WON hits all the criteria hard and strong. But it is also a sequel, and unlike Eric, I don’t think committee members want to be seen as “stuffy” and sticking to patterns of the past. I do really feel it is the best of the best.
So I’m gong to give the committee the benefit of believing they are up to rattling expectations.
Medal: LONG WAY DOWN
Honors: I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING, PRINCESS CORA, and ALL’S FAIRE IN MIDDLE SCHOOL.
Wishes to hope for: Well, Ada of course.
Winner: Hello Universe
Honors: War I finally Won, Piecing Me Together, Wishtree
Wishes: I’m Just No Good at Rhyming
MY PREDICTIONS
GOLD: ONE LAST WORD by NIKKI GRIMES
HONORS: VINCENT AND THEO
BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA
I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING
THE WAR I FINALLY WON
LOVING VS. VIRGINIA
I think LONG WAY DOWN gets the CORETTA SCOTT KING AWARD
When is the winner announced?
Newbery, Caldecott and other Youth Awards will be announced on Monday, February 12th, starting at 8 am Mountain Time. You can watch the announcements live at: http://ala.unikron.com/2018/index_home.php
Medal: THE WAR I FINALLY WON
Honors: PIECING ME TOGETHER
BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA
REAL FRIENDS
Outside chance: TRAIN I RIDE
HER RIGHT FOOT
ALL’S FAIRE IN MIDDLE SCHOOL
Wishful thinking: THE STARS BENEATH OUR FEET
THE HATE YOU GIVE (but I think it will get Printz Medal or Honor)
THE VANDERBEEKERS OF 141ST STREET
I enjoyed THE VANDERBEEKERS OF !4!ST STREET, but I agree that it is wishful thinking.
I wouldn’t mind seeing it receive an Honor.
I’m so terrible at predictions! Let me try, though.
Medal: The War I Finally Won
Honors: Beyond the Bright Sea
Orphan Island
Real Friends
Want to win: First Rule of Punk
Think: Beyond the Bright Sea or The War I Finally Won ( and I’m good with that)
Honors: Wish Tree, Refugee
Long shot that I’d love: The Vanderbeekers, The Unlikely Story of a Pig in the City, One Amazing Elephant, and The Some Day Birds
The book that I have gained a lot of appreciation for over these past few weeks is THE WAR I FINALLY WON. I have it down as an honor pick, but would not be shocked to see it get gold.
I actually love The War I finally Won better than the first book. I think it even stands on its own okay.
I have it on my list getting a silver medal, but would not be disappointed to see TWIFW get the top award on Monday.
Sorry for the duplicate post……..all the snow here in Ohio must be giving me a brain freeze.
Besides A DIFFERENT POND, does anyone see any picture books sneaking onto the Newbery medal stand on Monday?
Crown and Her Right Foot seem possibilities to me.
To my shame, I’m never good about thinking of picture books this way, but on GoodREads, Monica put THE ROOSTER WHO WOULD NOT BE SILENT down as a choice earlier in the year. My endorsement is: I would read that book aloud every day of my life, given the opportunity. It’s not just the message, which is stunning, but the way words connect with each other, like music as it is read aloud. Kee-kee-ree-KEE!
In my past ten years as a librarian, I have *never* predicted the winner. But here goes…
MEDAL:
THE WAR I FINALLY WON
HONORS:
CROWN (pleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease)
LONG WAY DOWN (it’s in my bag to read on the flight to Denver – I just know it’s gonna be great)
ORPHAN ISLAND
HER RIGHT FOOT (even though I haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaated it)
Never underestimate the power of the zeitgeist to influence people’s thinking.
What will win the Medal: A LONG WAY DOWN
What should win the Medal, but which I don’t think will even get an Honor: REFUGEE
Here’s a Mock Newbery result from a Middle School group. We’d love to hear other Mock results, so please post if you have them:
The Mock Newbery Club from Andover Elementary/Middle School in Andover, NH have met, debated and voted on their final predictions. These 6th-8th graders will be sipping tea and eating scones as we livestream the awards this Monday. Our final predictions are…
Winner: Beyond the Bright Sea
Honor: The Ethan I Was Before
Honor: Orphan Island
Honor: Scar Island
Thank you!
Molly Kidane
6th grade ELA teacher
Steven, Roxanne told me there would be a separate post for Mocks. Should we continue to post here, or wait?
I think maybe I jumped the gun on that, but since we’ve started, let’s keep posting results here. Sorry for the confusion….
Results from 4th-6th graders at Saint Ann’s School in Brooklyn, NY:
Winner: REFUGEE
Honor: FORGET ME NOT
Honor: THE WAR I FINALLY WON
I did well with predictions last year, awful the year before. I am going to go with:
First Rule of Punk, gold
Refugee, silver
Clayton Bird Goes Underground, silver
The War I Finally Won, silver
A group of Atlanta librarians (school and public) as well as teachers and authors met a couple a few weeks ago for our deliberation.
Our winner was A DIFFERENT POND
we ended up with two honors:
CLAYTON BYRD GOES UNDERGROUND and UNDEFEATED
(Her Right Foot just missed the honor cutoff)
Our discussion list which we developed over the course of the year is below
1. Loving vs. Virginia: A Documentary Novel of the Landmark Civil Rights Case
2. Me and Marvin Gardens
3. Undefeated : Jim Thorpe and the Carlisle Indian School Football Team
4. Amina’s Voice
5. Beyond the Bright Sea
6. Clayton Byrd Goes Underground
7. Midnight Without the Moon
8. Real Friends
9. The Hate U Give
10. Patina
11. Vincent and Theo: The Van Gogh Brothers
12. Rise of the Jumbies
13. Her Right Foot
14. A Different Pond
My predictions are:
Newbery: I’m Just no Good at Rhyming, (just recently read it, and it captures the humor and pathos of growing up).
Honor: Hello, Universe, (the multiple POV’S and the inclusion of folklore and diverse characters made this one stand out to me. It deserves recognition of some kind).
Honor: Beyond the Bright Sea, (the main character’s quest to find out about her family and the love of the islanders bring the theme of family to life).
Honor: Clayton Byrd Goes Underground, (the writing style is lyrical, and exploring Clayton’s grief as well as his mother’s make this novel affective).
Wishful Thinking: The Language of Thorns, (for an honor).
Flying Lessons and Other Stories, (for an honor).
My hopeful predictions…..
Winner: Beyond the Bright Sea
Honors: Vincent and Theo, A Long Way Down, Refugee
Wishful Thinking: Train I Ride
The one book I haven’t read because I haven’t been able to get my hands on it yet: The War I Finally Won – so that would probably mix my predictions up a bit by the sounds of it.
I’ll be tallying my students’ votes tomorrow. The winner will be very close between Beyond the Bright Sea and Refugee.
Results from a 5th grade Mock Newbery in Denver, CO that just decided today:
Winner—The Ethan I Was Before
Honor—Walking with Miss Millie
Honor—Scar Island
Honor—I’m Just No Good At Rhyming
Medal prediction: BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA
Honors predictions: WISHTREE, TWIFW, REAL FRIENDS
Wishful Thinking: VINCENT AND THEO, I’M JUST NO GOOD, WELCOME
Go Mo Willems!
Hot off the presses! After a rousing 2 Ballot hullabaloo! Portland Jewish Academy has awarded the medal to: BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA!
Honors were awarded to: The War I Finally Won, Real Friends, Scar Island and Brave
Note: This Newbery Club was composed of 15 5th graders. They didn’t consider Long Way Down, The Hate U Give or Refugee due to the age of the intended audience of those books. My adult club meets on Sunday night and we have considered those books as well so I will post an 11th hour result for the PJA adult readers Sunday night.
The 5th graders also wanted me to tell you that if I’m Just No Good At Rhyming wins they will be “outraged.” Their word, not mine.
Hi Molly, the fifth and sixth grade Newbery Club also just finished at Snow Horse Elementary, in Kaysville, Utah. We stayed and discussed every book, every student had a passion for, including ME AND MARVIN GARDENS, which one boy would like you to know is the best book ever.
I will not tell them how their votes shook out until Monday morning, when they come for breakfast and the announcements. But will share with you all:
Medal: THE WAR I FINALLY WON
Honors: WISHTREE & SEE YOU IN THE COSMOS
Our adult Mock met, weekend before last. Unlike my students we had a short list based on a nomination process from Oct to Dec, that paralleled the Newbery Committee’s.
We had nine books this year:
Patina by Jason Reynolds
Thick as Thieves by Turner
The War I Finally Won by Bradley
Wishtree by Katherine Applegate
Beyond the Bright Sea by Laure Wolk
Undefeated by Steve Shienken
Hello, Universe by Erin Entrada Kelly
Princess Cora and the Crocodile by Laura Amy Schlitz
Her Right Foot by Dave Eggars
We came to consensus after deliberate discussions, but just one vote:
Medal: THE WAR I FINALLY WON
Honors: PRINCESS CORA AND THE CROCODILE, & BEYOND THE BRIGHT SEA
Also, I’ve been tallying up the votes for our mock Giesel, Caldecott, and Sibert. if you are interested, but I suppose I should find the correct venue to share those results. Mostly I’m tired of math.
Steven, I still use the template in Excel that you created for the Mock package, sold through ALSC.
I have no idea! But I’ll go with:
Medal: The War I Finally Won
Honors: Princess Cora and the Crocodile, Beyond the Bright Sea, Long Way Down, Wishtree, Real Friends
Medal: The War I Finally Won
Honors: Wish Tree, Patina
THUG and Long Way Down are incredible, but a bit mature for his award, IMHO.
In Columbus, Ohio a group of teachers/ librarians chose The War I Finally Won with Beyond The Bright Sea as an honor.
Medal: Clayton Byrd Goes Underground
Honors: Long Way Down, War I Finally Won, I’m Just No Good at Rhyming
Wishful Thinking: Piecing Me Together
Gah! I left off Beyond the Bright Sea which has Newbery written all over it. Drop Long Way down for BBtS
Medal Prediction: ORPHAN ISLAND
Honor Prediction: WISHTREE
Honor Prediction: THE ETHAN I WAS BEFORE
Honor Prediction: HELLO UNIVERSE
Wishful Thinking: SCAR ISLAND