What’s Your Prediction?
We’ve spent the last several months discussing what we think SHOULD win Newbery recognition, and why. For this post, let’s shift gears and talk about what we think actually WILL emerge as winners. It’s not as easy as it looks. Though some of my predictions have won Honors over the years, I’m afraid that the last time I picked the winner in advance was eighteen years ago! And it’s not like BUD NOT BUDDY was a big surprise.
So I don’t expect to be accurate, but it’s always fun to speculate. If you want to join in, make your Medal prediction, and Honors too if you want, below. You can also share the reasoning behind your prediction. And you can add one title you don’t think will make it, but really wish it would. I’ll start it off:
Medal Prediction: THE WAR I FINALLY WON. It checks all the criteria boxes, and it’s hard to find much fault. Could rise to the top as a book that most members could eventually give a first place vote to, even if it’s not their original top pick.
Honor Prediction: VINCENT AND THEO. Strong, innovative nonfiction with distinct style. I’m thinking age level concerns might limit consensus.
Honor Prediction: LONG WAY DOWN. It received less support than I expected on Heavy Medal, but I can see this getting multiple first place votes.
Honor Prediction: HELLO UNIVERSE. Maybe this one gets few first place votes, but could make a lot of top three ballots.
Wishful Thinking: I’M JUST NO GOOD AT RHYMING. I know it won our mock poll on Heavy Medal, but I still think it’s a long shot. But a medal for poetry! A medal for humor! This would make me happy.
I always enjoy Betsy Bird’s predictions on Fuse 8, which she updates through the year, and she’s got her final picks up for Newbery and Caldecott. As for my picks , I’m probably way off as usual…what do you think will be announced on February 12th?
Filed under: Field Report, Process
About Steven Engelfried
Steven Engelfried was the Library Services Manager at the Wilsonville Public Library in Oregon until he retired in 2022 after 35 years as a full-time librarian. He served on the 2010 Newbery committee, chaired the 2013 Newbery Committee, and also served on the 2002 Caldecott committee. You can reach him at email@example.com.
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