Predictions for the ALA Youth Media Awards
STEVEN: It’s five days until the 2025 Newbery Medal will be announced, which means: Predictions! We do this every year, and the record shows that if you’re looking for accuracy, pay attention to Emily and ignore mine.
EMILY: Uhh you’re really loading the pressure on here Steven… why?








STEVEN: In seven years of predictions on Heavy Medal I’ve named 21 titles as possible Honor or Medal books and only 7 of those actually got a seal. The only Medal winner I picked was NEW KID. Emily, on the other hand has been here three years and she aced two of them. In 2022 she picked THE LAST CUENTISTA and TOO BRIGHT TO SEE as her Newbery predictions. The first got the Medal, the second was an Honor. And last year she named five books as her top contenders and three of them wound up with Honors: MEXIKID, THE MANY ASSASSINATIONS OF SAMIR, and SIMON SORT OF SAYS. So she’s great at this. Or….maybe she just got lucky and this is the year I finally break through! Yes, I think it must be that.
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EMILY: Oh, I’m a Newbery genius here… I actually heard Quades mom is the real genius putting her picks in envelopes… Betsy Bird has a decent track record too… but she also predicts like every season… really it’s all a gamble and that’s what makes it SO MUCH FUN!
JOHN NEWBERY MEDAL
STEVEN: I’m picking MID-AIR as the winner, but as usual there are probably 8 or 10 books that seem like they could easily win. My two honor picks both have those titles that are a sentence starting with the character’s name. Not my favorite kind of title, but both of these books are excellent: QUAGMIRE TIARELLO COULDN’T BE BETTER and MAGNOLIA WU UNFOLDS IT ALL. Now that you’ve read my sure-to-be-wrong picks, Emily can give us the real favorites:
EMILY: I’m STILLl on the “no book is sticking out to me” Maybe the committee will say “hey we’re just skipping a year.” I’m kidding, I’m kidding, I promise! OK here we go Medal- NOT QUITE A GHOST. Honors- ENIGMA GIRLS, LOUDER THAN HUNGER, BLACK GIRL YOU ARE ATLAS
HEAVY MEDAL AWARD COMMITTEE( 12 HMAC members select from our Final Five]
STEVEN: You can watch this pick on our Live Webcast on Friday at 1:00 pm EST (sign up to view the webcast here). I predict they’ll go with LOUDER THAN HUNGER]
EMILY: Oooo the committee… really I was surprised LOUDER made the final five… I’m on team BLACK GIRL, YOU ARE ATLAS!
HEAVY MEDAL ZOOM VIEWERS POLL (Webcast viewers select from our Final Five during the webcast]
STEVEN: Maybe this one will go to THE TENTH MISTAKE OF HANK HOOPERMAN?
EMILY: HANK HOOPERMAN or MAX in the HOUSE OF SPIES. Yes, I picked two!
HEAVY MEDAL READERS POLL (Anyone can vote from our list of 15 books)
STEVEN: HANK again for this one. It’s been a Heavy Medal reader favorite all year.
EMILY: HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANK
THE BOOK YOU WISH WOULD WIN, BUT PROBABLY WON’T
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STEVEN: I’d love to see THE WRONG WAY HOME with a Newbery. It’s more plot-driven than many others we’ve talked about….but there’s more to it than that, and what’s wrong with a really good plot?
EMILY: MY guilty pleasure favorite is THE FIRST STATE OF BEING . I actually enjoyed rereading it and have coined it “my time travel book!!” Also the musical Bat book!! I don’t even remember the name but I loved it so much! BRIDGE TO BAT CITY!! Also ACROSS SO MANY SEAS. Just looooved that one!
A HANDFUL OF PREDICTIONS FOR OTHER AWARDS
STEVEN: Before we start, and since my Newbery prediction record isn’t the greatest, I have to brag about my picks for other awards last year: I picked Medal winners for the Caldecott, Sibert, Coretta Scott King, and Schneider Awards. Plus a Printz Honor (yay GATHER). Having said that, I’ll probably miss on all of them this year:
EMILY: Wait how’d I do last year… I’m guessing your lack of comment means not good, but go you!!!
STEVEN: THE LAST ZOOKEEPER by Becker. My next pick is HOME IN A LUNCHBOX by Cherry Mo.
EMILY: Uhhh picture books.. You think with all these children I would have read more of these… uhhhh #pass
Michael L. Printz Award for Excellence in Young Adult Literature
STEVEN: As usual, I haven’t read much YA this year, but I think BLACK GIRL YOU ARE ATLAS would look great with a Printz seal.
EMILY: LOUDER THAN HUNGER!!!
Robert F. Sibert Informational Book Medal
STEVEN: I do like ENIGMA GIRLS here for the Medal, but will also add LIFE AFTER WHALE for an Honor.
EMILY: ENIGMA GIRLS hands down
STEVEN: DOG GETS A PET by Jeff Mack
Emily: Yeah………… pass 2.0
Coretta Scott King Book Awards
STEVEN: BLACK GIRL YOU ARE ATLAS seems like a good possibility here, but for the Medal I’ll predict ONE BIG OPEN SKY by Lisa Cline-Ransome
EMILY: ATLAS ATLAS ATLAS!!
STEVEN: For the middle school division, I think LOUDER THAN HUNGER would be a great pic,.
Emily: I’ll roll with you on that one!
STEVEN: MALLORY IN FULL COLOR gets my vote
EMILY: Another ditto!
Asian/Pacific American Literature Awards
STEVEN: I’m rooting for MAGNOLIA WU UNFOLDS IT ALL. CONTINENTAL DRIFTER by Kathy McLeod would also be a good choice.
Emily: I vote CONTINENTAL DRIFTER
STEVEN: I’m torn between ACROSS SO MANY SEAS and THE GIRL WHO SANG. If forced to choose (and I’m forcing myself) I’ll predict the first one.
EMILY: ACROSS SO MANY SEAS I MEAN IT NEEDS TO WIN SOMETHING!
EMILY: OK there’s what we have. I totally got every prediction right HA! I’ll have to come back Monday and compare. Please leave your predictions in the comments, it’s always so much fun!
Filed under: Book Discussion
About Emily Mroczek-Bayci
Emily Mroczek (Bayci) is a freelance children’s librarian in the Chicago suburbs. She served on the 2019 Newbery committee. You can reach her at emilyrmroczek@gmail.com.
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Emily’s got it right – the more books you suggest, the more likely you are to get at least one of them! Granted, I’m not taking Emily’s “advice!”
Newbery:
I hope I’m allowed to pick things that aren’t on the HMAC Mock List. I think FERRIS by Kate DiCamillo will win and THE FIRST STATE OF BEING by Erin Entrada Kelly will honor.
Here is my beef with THE ENIGMA GIRLS – I only counted 9 teenagers, and the book says there are 10. I counted one 20 year old, but if I’m being literal, that’s not a teen. Now is it possible I miscounted? Absolutely. I’d love to hear someone say, nope, you’re wrong Kelly, there are 10. If so, I think it’s got a great shot at Newbery and, of course, the Sibert.
Caldecott:
DRAWN ONWARD by Daniel Nayeri, illus by Matt Rockefeller. This one is super good and beautiful. It’s full page illustrations, and the story is good, too.
Yes, predictions from off our list are definitely okay. I loved DRAWN ONWARD too…would love to see it with Caldecott recognition.
I love how your picks are different than the Heavy Medal picks, different from other blogs’ picks. It really speaks to how different people focus on different things. I love that there are so many good books to choose from.
I can’t wait to listen to the Heavy Medal discussion and see the actual winners next week. For my personal predications:
Newbery: Louder than Hunger- Medal, Tree. Table. Book and Not Quite a Ghost for honors (I loved Wrong Way Home and Hank Hooperman, but I don’t think they will win)
Caldecott: Medal- The Yellow Bus and Honor- Home in a Lunchbox
Coretta Scott King- Black Girl You are Atlas
Sibert: For this one, I would love to see this brilliant book win
What is color?: the global and sometimes gross story of pigments, paint, and the wondrous world of art – Weinberg
BUT it will probably be Enigma Girls, which I just didn’t enjoy as much as everyone else. It just felt like a really long “Time For Kids” article and while it was interesting, I didn’t think the teens were fleshed out enough. I think she should have focused on fewer teens and dove a little deeper into their lives and work.
I can definitely see THE YELLOW BUS with a Caldecott too.
And yes, WHAT IS COLOR would be a different kind of Sibert winner, but a really good choice.
What is Color is an awesome thought for Sibert! I’m also wondering about Whale Fall!
Or rather Life After Whale!!
OOH Life After Whale would be a great choice too!
My predictions are all over the place, so I’m just sharing what I hope will win:
Medal: Ferris
Honors: Invisible Isabel, The Tenth Mistake of Hank Hooperman, The Last Apple Tree
What I’m hoping for the Caldecott:
Medal: My Daddy Is a Cowboy
Honors: Alice In a Winter Wonderland, Being Home, The Last Zookeeper, The Night Market, The Yellow Bus
Another intriguing Caldecott pick in MY DADDY IS A COWBOY! Interesting story, and the illustrations really brought that family and their world to life in a unique way.
I think this is how it goes for me every year: with Newbery, by this point I’m paying most attention to possible flaws (like Kelly’s question about the number of teens in ENIGMA GIRLS) because we’ve been looking so closely at these books and want perfection. There are a bunch of excellent ones, so I try to find fault in order to differentiate. With other awards, since I’m not paying as much attention, I just think a bunch of books are great and whatever wins will probably make me happy….
That’s what I have been doing on my last final reads before Friday. I will be reading Enigma Girls tomorrow and will be checking for names, ages, and if there are 10 ;0.
I’m just going here with the books I would like to win.
Newbery: *First State of Being* and *Not Quite a Ghost* for the honors, but for the medal itself, I absolutely LOVED *The Wrong Way Home.*
Caldecott: *The Yellow Bus.* Possibly an honor for *Being Home.*
Printz: I only just started reading *Enigma Girls,* so right now it’s between it and *Pick the Lock.*
Also, I’m going to go out on a limb here and sing the praise of CALL ME ROBERTO. It might get some love for the Belpre, but I think it would be an interesting choice for the Sibert, too.
I’m an outlier with the Newbery — I’m really rooting for Magnolia Wu! I just think it is a perfect little capsule of a story with strong characterization and really unique, memorable language. The first page alone is magnificent, and for me, it only gets better from there. Conveyance of theme is not easy in such a short number of pages, and Chanel Miller does it beautifully. She is a gifted storyteller with a one-of-a-kind imagination (check out her instagram stories about travel!!) that I feel meets kids right where they’re at.
On my 4th and 5th grade Mock Newbery committee, Light and Air is racing to the top spot with Max in the House of Spies close behind. We’ll see if there are any major shake-ups in the next few days!
For the Caldecott, I’d love to see Home in a Lunchbox take the prize. I guess I have a thing for debuts this year. My 2nd graders are obsessed with it in a way that I haven’t experienced in a long time. The Yellow Bus has similar themes and use of color, but it just doesn’t grab me (or my students) the way Home in a Lunchbox does. Plus, you can TASTE that delicious dim sum on the double page spreads!!
I’m reasonably sure that Still Life, with illustrations by Paul Zelinsky, is going to take the Mock Caldecott prize with second graders here at my school. The style choices and “opposite day” storytelling is really effective, so I get why they’re into it! And kids love a silly book. But I have to say the MAIN reason they’re rooting for Still Life is that the author, Alex London, is married to one of our 2nd grade teachers, so it really has an unfair bias benefit. 😂
Home in a Lunchbox won my middle school’s Mock Caldecott!
I have a few students who absolutely loved Light and Air! (and I did, too)
Caldecott: Home in a Lunchbox, The Yellow Bus, The Last Zookeeper, What’s New Daniel?, Touch the Sky, and my wildcard pick, We Are Definitely Human
Newbery: Not Quite A Ghost, The Wrong Way Home, Telephone of the Tree, And Then…Boom!
Sibert: The Enigma Girls, Life After Whale, Narwhal, The Shape of Things, Evidence, Remembering Rosalind Franklin
Sydney Taylor: Across So Many Seas, The Girl Who Sang, The Color of Sound
Pura Belpre: No More Senora Mimi, Barrio Rising
Geisel: The Cozy Home/Vacation by Ame Dyckman and Mark Teague
I’ll have to think more about the CSK, APALA, AILA, Schneider, and Stonewall…
And the Printz!! I haven’t read much YA this year but I like Everything We Never Had (Ribay), When the World Tips Over (Nelson), Pick the Lock (King), and The Enigma Girls. I wonder too about Force of Nature by Ann Burg…
Jenny I’m with you on almost all of these Caldecott thoughts!!!
Haha, I didn’t really hedge my bets by picking six! I always want them to do the maximum number of Honor books. Why not??
Newbery award- Not Quite a Ghost; honors to Mid-Air, Louder than Hunger, Not Nothing, Across So Many Seas, and Unsinkable Cayenne (dark horse that I loved!).
CSK – Black Girl You are Atlas; honors to Mid-Air and Shark Teeth?
Sydney Taylor – Across So Many Seas (maybe also Pura Belpre honor? It’s such a special book.); honors to Max in the House of Spies and The Girl Who Sang
Schneider Award – Louder than Hunger; honors to Deer Run Home and Every Story Ever Told (PTSD)
Printz award – Louder than Hunger; Honor to Not Like Other Girls by Meredith Adamo
Sibert award – not sure but Life After Whale was excellent!
I’m with you on Unsinkable Cayenne, Laura! Also, if Louder than Hunger doesn’t get Newbery, I hope it does get Printz!
What about for Caldecott? Geisel?
I don’t read enough little kid books to predict! I’m a middle school librarian and my own kids are grades 5 and 8…